EIA forecasts lower U.S. coal exports after bridge collapse

sxcoal.com Import & Export,  Production & Sales,  International 2024-04-11 13:24:06

Coal exports in the United States are projected to slump 33% in April and 20% in May compared with March's forecast after the Baltimore port was closed as a result of the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on April 9.


Baltimore is the second-largest export hub for coal in the U.S. Analysts said the accident would disrupt global supply chains significantly at a time of international turmoil and threats to energy security.


The U.S. has been working hard to reopen the port as soon as possible and planned to fully restore operation by end-May. The EIA predicted this event to have a limited impact on the country's coal exports.


The report estimated U.S. coal exports to reach 94.5 million short tons (85.73 million tonnes) in 2024, indicating a 5.31% decrease from 2023 and lower than March's expectation of 100.8 million short tons. Exports of thermal coal are projected to be 48.7 million short tons, while metallurgical coal exports are expected to reach 45.8 million short tons.


U.S.  coal exports are forecast to reach 104.9 million short tons in 2025, against the previous forecast of 105.9 million tonnes. Thermal coal exports are projected to be 57.4 million short tons, while metallurgical coal exports are estimated to reach 47.5 million short tons.


Regarding production, the report estimated U.S. coal output to decline 16.57% from a year ago to 485.2 million short tonnes for 2024, before dropping another 4.33% year on year to 464.2 million short tonnes in 2025.


In terms of consumption, U.S.  coal consumption is forecast to drop from 426.5 million short tons in 2023 to 396.4 million short tons in 2024. Coal consumption in the power sector is forecast to slide 7.54% year on year to 358 million short tons, while consumption in retail and other industries is anticipated to be 22.0 million short tons, down 6.78%.


In 2025, U.S. coal consumption is expected to be 380 million short tons, down 4.14% year on year. The electricity sector will consume 340.5 million short tons of coal, while the retail and other industries will use 22.1 million short tons.


The report also said that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2024 are projected to edge down 1% from a year earlier. Specifically, CO2 emissions related to coal combustion will decrease 8% on the year. In 2025, energy-related CO2 emissions are forecast to decline 1% compared to the preceding year.


(Writing by Riley Liang  Editing by Alex Guo)
For any questions, please contact us by inquiry@fwenergy.com or +86-351-7219322.

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