• 2017-2021 Southwest China Coal Supply-demand Pattern & Development Trend

  • ——New trend of SW coal supply, demand & logistics from the perspective of newly-built railways

    Date of completion: April , 2017

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During the 12th Five-Year-Plan period, the economic growth of southwest China outpaced all the other regions in the country, and such robust growth continued in 2016 – start of the 13th Five-Year-Plan period, which is sure to generate enormous energy demand.

Southwest China - one of the regions with the strongest economic vitality and a region with net coal inflow, its coal market trend has caused great concerns. Some people wonder about the changes on the region's coal supply-demand pattern in the coming five years. With expected commissioning of LanYu Railway (Lanzhou-Chongqing), what impact it will bring to the region's coal inflow? This report will address all the above concerns and give answers.

The southwestern region in this report is made up of Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan provinces and Chongqing Municipality, but excluding Tibet.


Part 1: 2012-2016 Southwest China Coal Supply-demand Review

1 Coal Consumption 

1.1 Economic performance (GDP, FAI, real estate and infrastructure investment), output of major coal-based products

1.2 Thermal coal

1.2.1 Power industry   

— Installed capacity and changes on capacity structure

— Power generation and changes on power consumption

— Thermal coal burn for power generation

1.2.2 Metallurgical industry    

— Pig iron capacity and output (incl. distribution of blast furnaces)

— Thermal coal burn for PCI and sintering

1.2.3 Building materials industry

— Cement output (cement and cement clinker)

— Thermal coal burn in entire building materials industry

1.2.4 Chemical industry

— Capacity and output of major coal-based chemicals (synthetic ammonia, methanol)

— Thermal coal burn in chemical industry

1.3 Coking coal

1.3.1 Coke demand (to calculate coke demand based on pig iron output)

1.3.2 Coke output and self-sufficiency ability

— Changes on coke output

— Coke self-sufficiency in western part of southwest China

1.3.3 Coking coal consumption

1.4 Total coal consumption

2 Coal Supply

2.1 Coal capacity

2.1.1 Capacity by province/municipality

2.1.2 Capacity by coal type

2.1.3 Capacity by major enterprise

2.2 Coal output

2.2.1 Output by province/municipality

2.2.2 Output by coal type

2.2.3 Output by major enterprise

3 Coal Supply-demand Balance and Coal Inflow

3.1 Coal supply-demand balance

3.1.1 Supply-demand balanceby province/municipality

3.1.2 Supply-demand balanceby coal type

— Thermal coal

— Coking coal

3.1.3 Imports and exports

3.2 Coal inflow

3.2.1 Provincial inflow/outflow within the southwestern region

3.2.2 Total inflow from other regions

3.2.3 Inflow by coal type(thermal/coking)from other regions

4 Outside Sources for Coal Inflow and Transportation

4.1 Outside coal sources

4.2 Transport means and cost

Part 2: 2017-2021Southwest China Coal Supply-demand Development Trend

5 Economic Growth Forecast

5.1 Major macro-economic indexes

5.2 Infrastructure investment (railway, road, etc.)

5.3 Growth potential of major coal-based products

6 Coal Demand Forecast

6.1 Thermal coal demand

6.1.1 Power industry (growth potential of power demand, under-construction & planned thermal power capacity, coal demand for power generation)

— Thermal (coal-fired) installed capacity

— Unit coal burn and power generation of thermal (coal-fired) generating units

— Total thermal coal burn for thermal (coal-fired) power generation

6.1.2 Building materials industry

— Cement clinker output, unit coal burn and total coal burn for cement

— Share of coal for cement in total thermal coal consumption in entire building materials industry

6.1.3 Chemical industry

— Output of traditional chemicals (synthetic ammonia, methanol) and thermal coal demand

— Output of new-type chemicals (CTL, CTNG) and thermal coal demand

6.1.4 Metallurgical industry

— Coal burn for blast-furnace PCI

— Coal burn for iron ore sintering

6.2 Coking coal demand

6.2.1 Coke demand and supply

6.2.2 Coking coal demand

6.3 Total coal demand

7 Coal Supply Forecast

7.1 Coal capacity

7.1.1 Closed capacity

7.1.2 Newly-added capacity

7.1.3 Effective capacity

7.2 Coal output

7.2.1 Output by province/municipality

7.2.2 Output by coal type

8 Coal Supply-demand Balance and Inflow Forecast

8.1 Supply-demand balance

8.2 Inflow demand from other regions

8.2 Imports and exports

9 Outside Sources for Coal Inflow and Transportation

9.1 Impact of newly-built railways on coal inflow pattern

9.2 Changes on outside coal sources

9.3 Inflow by coal type (thermal/coking) from other regions

9.4 Transport means and cost